The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years

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I think it's more likely now than ever. Public support for marijuana legalization in the U.

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

There's a bipartisan effort underway to allow states to make their own decisions with respect to marijuana legalization. Another possibility is that international marijuana markets grow much more quickly than expected. This, too, isn't out of the question. Even though Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics think that the United Kingdom will be the second-largest marijuana market outside of North America within a few years, things are moving more quickly than most anticipated in the U.

It's possible that the market there and in other countries with sizable populations could be bigger than anyone projects right now. Then there's the potential for massive consolidation among Canadian marijuana growers.


I think that volatility for marijuana stocks over the next few years could be as sky high as their current valuations. Investors who can't grin and bear it through major swings should stay away from these stocks. Having said that, the cannabis industry is here to stay. The companies that are competitive globally and have strong financial positions should be able to prosper over the long run.

Close relationships with major companies outside of the cannabis industry, such as Canopy Growth's partnership with Constellation Brands , should be very helpful on these fronts. Just as some of today's biggest tech winners emerged from the dot-com bubble, I suspect there will be some big winners among the current crop of marijuana stocks.

The bad news, though, is that the landscape is likely to be littered by big losers, too. Keith began writing for the Fool in and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. Follow keithspeights. Premium Services. Stock Advisor Flagship service. Rule Breakers High-growth stocks. View all Motley Fool Services. Trending Topics. Popular Sectors. Hot off the Press. How to Invest. Learn How to Invest. Track Your Performance.

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sell stocks at their all time highs? Take the profits and get ready for a crash?

Personal Finance. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. Let's conquer your financial goals together See you at the top! Something important to understand is in most markets you can think of aside from real estate , prices are kept roughly in balance by the forces of supply and demand. However, real estate is unique because the amount of land in existence is fixed.

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These patterns form the real estate cycle. Similar to the seasons changing, real estate follows a pattern that can be researched and predicted. However the cycle moves at its own pace, which is the difficult thing to predict.

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The real estate market typically cycles through four phases before recurring again. These phases can be described as:. The market is no longer falling and begins to trend back upward. Value always exists if you know how to identify it. I remember my rule of thumb by putting a spin on one of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes; It is far better to buy a wonderful property at a fair price, than to buy a fair property at a wonderful price.

This phase of the cycle is represented by high unemployment, a high number of home foreclosures, and elevated levels of fear in the general population consumer confidence. Prices have fallen far enough to tempt the savviest investors back into the market, looking for high yields. Soon following, large real estate investment funds begin buying properties in large quantity to expand their portfolios, typically a signal of the recovery solidifying.

Prime properties will always be the most attractive, so early growth tends to begin in the most dominant major metro areas, then expanding outward from there. During the expansion phase, businesses are hiring and confidence in real estate is growing. Lenders begin to overcome the initial trauma and loosen lending criteria.

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This in turn creates confidence and capital for development to begin once again. Property values begin to rise, caused by a low supply but increasing demand, as more people decide that buying real estate might be more fruitful than renting or living with family.

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  • As businesses expand, desire for commercial property follows. Developers now begin to build new properties to accommodate the growing demand.

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    During this phase of the cycle, it is still a great time to invest in real estate. Rents and values are both increasing and the general population begins to express optimism for the future. This period of growth is a good market to be a part of, however an important shift also slowly begins: speculators enter the playing field. Speculators are buyers and investors who deeply depend on future growth of the market to produce profits and base their numbers upon this need.

    Given this, they begin to pay more for properties than they should. Phase 3 is the strongest upsurge of the cycle. Builders begin to pay more for land and construction than they should, based on the thought that rents will continue to increase. Rehab investors do the same, as they overpay for property because they know another Buyer will pay them even more for the full renovation. Demand during this time begins to wane as the supply created during Phase 2 reaches a balance.

    Ideally the market should stabilize here because everyone is happy. However, developing real estate can take years, and the construction that began during the expansion phase is persisting. Eventually supply overtakes demand, and vacancies increase. During this phase in the market, stories of real estate wealth are told because many people are making money before this growth begins to slow. Abide by your numbers and find a real estate niche that works for now or be patient and wait for the next phase.

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    Since property values increase faster than wages do, real estate eventually becomes unaffordable for the majority of the population. This creates a chain of events:. These factors then begin to have a trickle-down effect for the stock market and employment volume. The building projects that seemed promising just a few years earlier are unable to sell, driving prices down quickly.

    Foreclosures increase as more and more owners find themselves underwater and more and more investors find themselves unable to pay the mortgage with the decreasing rents and increased vacancy. This can be an opportune time for real estate investors, but one that must be carefully examined.